The development and validation of a windthrow probability model for Sitka spruce in Ireland.

  • Áine Ní Dhubháin School of Biology and Environmental Science, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland.
  • Michael Bulfin Teagasc, Malahide Road, Kinsealy, Dublin 17, Ireland.
  • Michael Keane Coillte, Newtownmountkennedy, Co. Wicklow, Ireland.
  • Paul Mills Compass Informatics Limited, Block 8, Blackrock Business Park, Carysfort Avenue, Blackrock, Co. Dublin, Ireland.
  • Jonathon Walshe Graduate student, School of Biology and Environmental Science, University College Dublin.
Keywords: Probabilistic model, windthrow, Sitka spruce, thinning.

Abstract

An empirical windthrow probability model for Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) in Ireland was developed and validated. Data were collected from a range of Sitka spruce stands on different sites. Logistic regression was used to determine which site, stand and silvicultural factors significantly influenced the probability of windthrow. Top height, top height squared, the regional location of the stand, soil type, and altitude significantly influenced the occurrence of windthrow in Sitka spruce. Whether or not the stand had been thinned was also important. A model to predict the probability of windthrow occurring in a forest stand was developed. A validation exercise indicated that only 6% of the stands for which the model predicted the probability of windthrow to be less than 1% actually experienced windthrow.
Published
2009-11-01
How to Cite
Ní Dhubháin, Áine, Bulfin, M., Keane, M., Mills, P. and Walshe, J. (2009) “The development and validation of a windthrow probability model for Sitka spruce in Ireland.”, Irish Forestry. Available at: https://journal.societyofirishforesters.ie/index.php/forestry/article/view/10024 (Accessed: 2February2023).
Section
Articles